Some disquieting polling in Ukraine this month from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. KIIS asked Ukrainians to say whether they would take two deals. In the first, the war with Russia would freeze along its current lines, with Russia gaining de facto control of all occupied territories. In the second, Ukraine would concede these territories in an internationally recognized annexation by Russia. In exchange for both, Russia would cease fire and Ukraine would receive both security guarantees and substantial international aid.
Remarkably, a majority of Ukrainians would support this first deal. Russia’s de facto control of Crimea has been a bitter pill for the country to swallow, but 60% of Ukrainians seem willing to accept that arrangement with much more territory if it will bring the fighting to an end.
When Russia gains formal control of these territories, however, popular support for the deal collapses. And in fact, Ukrainian attitudes on this have significantly hardened in recent months, swinging 8 points against conceding territories since last April.
On the merits, these number seem difficult to explain. The strategic footing of Ukraine has not significantly changed in the last few months, certainly not so much as to explain an 8 point bump in opposition to land concessions. And given that a frozen conflict would almost certainly create a worse situation for Ukrainians in occupied territories than formal annexation, it’s hard to come up with a practical explanation for the gap in support for those settlements.
On the merits, these numbers seem difficult to explain. In the context of the last year, however, they point us to a war that has become deeply psychological.
